More Immigration Best Solution To U.S. Economic Decline And Continued World Leadership
According to the last census, the U.S. population grew at the second-slowest rate over the last decade since the founding of the country. The two main reasons were a declining fertility rate—with birthrates declining almost 20% since peaking in 2007—and a reduction in immigration. The impact of the pandemic—in terms of mortality, long-term disability and anxiety over economic insecurity—will only make matters worse. This is a serious economic concern as well as a threat to America’s world leadership
Aging U.S. Population A Looming Problem
As Bloomberg columnist Noah Smith recently explained, as the U.S. population ages, the number of working-age people available to support each old person decreases. This puts an increasing financial and physical burden on the young. The burden is carried through the cost of Social Security, pensions and expenditures for elder care that younger people must pay. Everyone’s living standards drop as fewer working people produce less output per person in the total population.
Furthermore, as older workers slow down, they also reduce the productivity of younger workers. Corporate leadership dominated by older managers who become set in their ways fails to exploit new technologies, new business models and new market opportunities. Without a large and growing domestic market to sell to, companies are not likely to invest there, which again hurts productivity, economic growth and prosperity. The downward spiral accelerates.
America Needs To Grow To Compete With China
China’s population growth has slowed, if it hasn’t started to decline already. But if the U.S. allows its own population to stagnate, the gap between the population growth of the two countries will remain vast, making it extremely hard for the U.S. to compete with China as a geopolitical power. The same would be true for the U.S. in relation to other countries experiencing population growth.
For these reasons, Koichi Hamada, Professor Emeritus at Yale University, and a special adviser to former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, also argues that restricting U.S. immigration would choke off a traditional source of U.S. prosperity and hurt the economy’s growth prospects. Although immigration can create problems related to culture, language, and integration, it is a powerful economic driver.
The German Experience Can Teach Us A Lesson
It is worthwhile to consider the experience of Germany in accepting one million refugees in 2015 in this regard. Many observers condemned German Chancellor Angela Merkel when she openly declared Germany was ready to receive refugees from the Middle East and North Africa, no matter how they arrived in Germany. Initial problems and setbacks in the country led to doubts about the wisdom of Merkel’s declaration. But things have largely settled in the country since then. Regardless of how poorly many felt the policy was implemented (particularly since it encouraged refugees to migrate through other European countries to get to Germany,) today Germany remains the strongest European economy. True, like other countries in Europe and elsewhere, Germany has struggled with the COVID-19 pandemic, but Germany is now recovering with the help of vaccines. Meanwhile, the anti-immigrant backlash appears to have subsided as the newcomers have increasingly integrated into German society. The far-right has ebbed in popularity while pro-immigrant platforms are increasingly gaining support.
Increased U.S. Birthrates Are Not The Answer
In terms of increasing the U.S. population, natural birthrates are not the answer since they are not keeping up as they should. As Vox immigration reporter Nicole Narea recently highlighted, “census figures show the U.S. population was 331.5 million people, an increase of just 7.4 percent between 2010 and 2020—the lowest rate since the 1930s. Projections suggest that, unless current trends change, those numbers could continue to diminish dramatically over the next two to three decades, with the population growing by just 78 million by 2060.” That is nowhere near enough to sustain the aging population and to continue economic growth and prosperity in America.
How Much Immigration Do We Need?
At the moment, the United States admits about 1 million immigrants per year. In their publication Room to Grow, National Immigration Forum’s president and CEO, Ali Noorani and his colleague Danilo Zak argue that the U.S. should increase net immigration levels by at least 37 percent, or about 370,000 additional immigrants a year, to prevent a “demographic deficit” stemming from low population growth. Moreover, Zak added that all kinds of immigrants are needed. Following this line of thinking, America needs more skilled workers, family members, outstanding achievers, refugees, investors, retirees, young people, and essential workers from a diverse mix of countries and origins. All of them should have a place in America if the country wants to grow and prosper. Changes in U.S. immigration are needed now, before it is too late.
What About The Environment?
As for environmentalists who question the soundness of a policy encouraging a burgeoning population growth rate, Smith points out, “Over the past few decades, even as the U.S. population has continued to grow, use of many resources — fresh water and various minerals — has fallen. Energy use has also stayed flat, and total carbon emissions have gone down substantially.” There is little evidence that increasing the number of immigrants coming to America has a negative environmental impact. These people have to live somewhere, and if anything, their migration may be a net benefit to the environment.
Leadership Is Key
In short, leadership is needed to convince Americans that their future well being is intricately linked to increased immigration—a lot more immigration. Of course, any change involves challenges and immigration is no different. But as indicated, the reality is that failing to change now will lead to America’s economic decline and the country’s loss of leadership in the world. America cannot wait, it needs to act now.